Crowdsourced Predictions: FutureLoop
Five days ago, Peter Diamandis asked the FutureLoop community an interesting Covid-19 question, which combines both machine learning (ML) and human intelligence (HI) in a symbiotic loop, we aggregated predictions from nearly 2,000 participants with some fascinating results!
When will the last shelter-at-home lockdown be lifted in the U.S.?
(1) Nearly 17% (by far the largest consensus) predict all U.S. lockdowns will be lifted by the week of June 3rd, now only 7 weeks away;
(2) Meanwhile, as generated by FutureLoop’s machine-learning platform, the community average isn’t far off from the mode, with all lockdown lifts estimated for the week of June 12th.
(3) As to the male/female split, men seem to be slightly more optimistic than women, representing an average prediction of 8.32 weeks vs. women's later estimate of 9 weeks.
(4) You can participate and look at prediction breakdowns by industry, title and expertise here.